IBM SPSS Web Report - Bankloan.spv   

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Log
Log - Log - September 23, 2019

GET
  FILE='C:\efrayer\spss\SPSS_Eric_Data\bankloan.sav'.
DATASET NAME DataSet1 WINDOW=FRONT.
SET SEED=9191972.
IF  (MISSING(default) = 0) validate=rv.bernoulli(0.7).
EXECUTE.
LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES default
  /SELECT=validate EQ 1
  /METHOD=FSTEP(LR) age ed employ address income debtinc creddebt othdebt
  /CONTRAST (ed)=Indicator
  /SAVE=PRED COOK SRESID
  /CLASSPLOT
  /PRINT=GOODFIT
  /CRITERIA=PIN(0.05) POUT(0.10) ITERATE(20) CUT(0.5).

Logistic Regression
Logistic Regression - Active Dataset - September 23, 2019


[DataSet1] C:\efrayer\spss\SPSS_Eric_Data\bankloan.sav

Logistic Regression
Logistic Regression - Case Processing Summary - September 23, 2019
Case Processing SummaryCase Processing Summary, table, 1 levels of column headers and 2 levels of row headers, table with 4 columns and 8 rows
Unweighted Casesa N Percent
Selected Cases Included in Analysis 499 58.7
Missing Cases 0 .0
Total 499 58.7
Unselected Cases 351 41.3
Total 850 100.0
a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases.
Logistic Regression
Logistic Regression - Dependent Variable Encoding - September 23, 2019
Dependent Variable EncodingDependent Variable Encoding, table, 1 levels of column headers and 1 levels of row headers, table with 2 columns and 4 rows
Original Value Internal Value
No 0
Yes 1
Logistic Regression
Logistic Regression - Categorical Variables Codings - September 23, 2019
Categorical Variables CodingsCategorical Variables Codings, table, 2 levels of column headers and 2 levels of row headers, table with 7 columns and 8 rows
  Frequency Parameter coding
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Level of education Did not complete high school 266 1.000 .000 .000 .000
High school degree 134 .000 1.000 .000 .000
Some college 69 .000 .000 1.000 .000
College degree 25 .000 .000 .000 1.000
Post-undergraduate degree 5 .000 .000 .000 .000
Block 0: Beginning Block
Block 0: Beginning Block - Classification Table - September 23, 2019
Classification Tablea,bClassification Table, table, 4 levels of column headers and 3 levels of row headers, table with 9 columns and 13 rows
  Observed Predicted
  Selected Casesc Unselected Casesd,e
  Previously defaulted Percentage Correct Previously defaulted Percentage Correct
  No Yes No Yes
Step 0 Previously defaulted No 375 0 100.0 142 0 100.0
Yes 124 0 .0 59 0 .0
Overall Percentage     75.2     70.6
a. Constant is included in the model.  
b. The cut value is .500  
c. Selected cases validate EQ 1  
d. Unselected cases validate NE 1  
e. Some of the unselected cases are not classified due to either missing values in the independent variables or categorical variables with values out of the range of the selected cases.  
Block 0: Beginning Block
Block 0: Beginning Block - Variables in the Equation - September 23, 2019
Variables in the EquationVariables in the Equation, table, 1 levels of column headers and 2 levels of row headers, table with 8 columns and 3 rows
  B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 0 Constant -1.107 .104 114.122 1 .000 .331
Block 0: Beginning Block
Block 0: Beginning Block - Variables not in the Equation - September 23, 2019
Variables not in the EquationVariables not in the Equation, table, 1 levels of column headers and 3 levels of row headers, table with 6 columns and 15 rows
  Score df Sig.
Step 0 Variables Age in years 9.486 1 .002
Level of education 6.822 4 .146
Level of education(1) 6.312 1 .012
Level of education(2) 1.776 1 .183
Level of education(3) 2.122 1 .145
Level of education(4) .721 1 .396
Years with current employer 39.958 1 .000
Years at current address 12.634 1 .000
Household income in thousands 6.683 1 .010
Debt to income ratio (x100) 64.314 1 .000
Credit card debt in thousands 25.348 1 .000
Other debt in thousands 5.559 1 .018
Overall Statistics 135.024 11 .000
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients - Septem(more)ber 23, 2019(less)
Omnibus Tests of Model CoefficientsOmnibus Tests of Model Coefficients, table, 1 levels of column headers and 2 levels of row headers, table with 5 columns and 14 rows
  Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 61.544 1 .000
Block 61.544 1 .000
Model 61.544 1 .000
Step 2 Step 50.712 1 .000
Block 112.256 2 .000
Model 112.256 2 .000
Step 3 Step 35.747 1 .000
Block 148.003 3 .000
Model 148.003 3 .000
Step 4 Step 16.832 1 .000
Block 164.835 4 .000
Model 164.835 4 .000
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Model Summary - September 23, 2019
Model SummaryModel Summary, table, 1 levels of column headers and 1 levels of row headers, table with 4 columns and 9 rows
Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square
1 498.012a .116 .172
2 447.301b .201 .299
3 411.553b .257 .381
4 394.721c .281 .417
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
b. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
c. Estimation terminated at iteration number 6 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Hosmer and Lemeshow Test - September 23, 201(more)9(less)
Hosmer and Lemeshow TestHosmer and Lemeshow Test, table, 1 levels of column headers and 1 levels of row headers, table with 4 columns and 6 rows
Step Chi-square df Sig.
1 3.292 8 .915
2 11.866 8 .157
3 9.447 8 .306
4 4.027 8 .855
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Te(more)st - September 23, 2019(less)
Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow TestContingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, table, 2 levels of column headers and 2 levels of row headers, table with 7 columns and 43 rows
  Previously defaulted = No Previously defaulted = Yes Total
Observed Expected Observed Expected
Step 1 1 46 46.977 6 5.023 52
2 50 47.658 4 6.342 54
3 44 43.998 7 7.002 51
4 43 43.806 9 8.194 52
5 39 39.197 9 8.803 48
6 40 39.103 10 10.897 50
7 34 36.635 16 13.365 50
8 37 34.147 14 16.853 51
9 27 29.263 24 21.737 51
10 15 14.216 25 25.784 40
Step 2 1 50 48.725 0 1.275 50
2 46 47.071 4 2.929 50
3 48 45.398 2 4.602 50
4 46 43.896 4 6.104 50
5 35 41.721 15 8.279 50
6 41 39.139 9 10.861 50
7 34 36.235 16 13.765 50
8 34 32.467 16 17.533 50
9 26 26.013 24 23.987 50
10 15 14.336 34 34.664 49
Step 3 1 50 49.587 0 .413 50
2 49 48.455 1 1.545 50
3 48 46.903 2 3.097 50
4 43 45.066 7 4.934 50
5 44 42.350 6 7.650 50
6 42 39.556 8 10.444 50
7 29 35.715 21 14.285 50
8 31 31.040 19 18.960 50
9 29 24.589 21 25.411 50
10 10 11.740 39 37.260 49
Step 4 1 50 49.778 0 .222 50
2 49 48.995 1 1.005 50
3 47 47.549 3 2.451 50
4 45 45.495 5 4.505 50
5 46 42.992 4 7.008 50
6 39 39.783 11 10.217 50
7 32 35.801 18 14.199 50
8 33 30.474 17 19.526 50
9 24 23.443 26 26.557 50
10 10 10.689 39 38.311 49
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Classification Table - September 23, 2019
Classification TableaClassification Table, table, 4 levels of column headers and 3 levels of row headers, table with 9 columns and 21 rows
  Observed Predicted
  Selected Casesb Unselected Casesc,d
  Previously defaulted Percentage Correct Previously defaulted Percentage Correct
  No Yes No Yes
Step 1 Previously defaulted No 361 14 96.3 137 5 96.5
Yes 100 24 19.4 45 14 23.7
Overall Percentage     77.2     75.1
Step 2 Previously defaulted No 351 24 93.6 136 6 95.8
Yes 80 44 35.5 36 23 39.0
Overall Percentage     79.2     79.1
Step 3 Previously defaulted No 348 27 92.8 135 7 95.1
Yes 72 52 41.9 28 31 52.5
Overall Percentage     80.2     82.6
Step 4 Previously defaulted No 352 23 93.9 130 12 91.5
Yes 67 57 46.0 27 32 54.2
Overall Percentage     82.0     80.6
a. The cut value is .500  
b. Selected cases validate EQ 1  
c. Unselected cases validate NE 1  
d. Some of the unselected cases are not classified due to either missing values in the independent variables or categorical variables with values out of the range of the selected cases.  
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Variables in the Equation - September 23, 20(more)19(less)
Variables in the EquationVariables in the Equation, table, 1 levels of column headers and 2 levels of row headers, table with 8 columns and 20 rows
  B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Debt to income ratio (x100) .121 .017 52.676 1 .000 1.129
Constant -2.476 .230 116.315 1 .000 .084
Step 2b Years with current employer -.140 .023 38.158 1 .000 .869
Debt to income ratio (x100) .134 .018 54.659 1 .000 1.143
Constant -1.621 .259 39.038 1 .000 .198
Step 3c Years with current employer -.244 .033 54.676 1 .000 .783
Debt to income ratio (x100) .069 .022 9.809 1 .002 1.072
Credit card debt in thousands .506 .101 25.127 1 .000 1.658
Constant -1.058 .280 14.249 1 .000 .347
Step 4d Years with current employer -.247 .034 51.826 1 .000 .781
Years at current address -.089 .023 15.109 1 .000 .915
Debt to income ratio (x100) .072 .023 10.040 1 .002 1.074
Credit card debt in thousands .602 .111 29.606 1 .000 1.826
Constant -.605 .301 4.034 1 .045 .546
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Debt to income ratio (x100).  
b. Variable(s) entered on step 2: Years with current employer.  
c. Variable(s) entered on step 3: Credit card debt in thousands.  
d. Variable(s) entered on step 4: Years at current address.  
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Model if Term Removed - September 23, 2019
Model if Term RemovedModel if Term Removed, table, 1 levels of column headers and 2 levels of row headers, table with 6 columns and 12 rows
Variable Model Log Likelihood Change in -2 Log Likelihood df Sig. of the Change
Step 1 Debt to income ratio (x100) -279.778 61.544 1 .000
Step 2 Years with current employer -249.006 50.712 1 .000
Debt to income ratio (x100) -256.281 65.262 1 .000
Step 3 Years with current employer -248.719 85.885 1 .000
Debt to income ratio (x100) -210.684 9.814 1 .002
Credit card debt in thousands -223.650 35.747 1 .000
Step 4 Years with current employer -236.533 78.345 1 .000
Years at current address -205.777 16.832 1 .000
Debt to income ratio (x100) -202.395 10.068 1 .002
Credit card debt in thousands -219.820 44.919 1 .000
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Variables not in the Equation - September 23(more), 2019(less)
Variables not in the EquationVariables not in the Equation, table, 1 levels of column headers and 3 levels of row headers, table with 6 columns and 44 rows
  Score df Sig.
Step 1 Variables Age in years 14.082 1 .000
Level of education 7.324 4 .120
Level of education(1) 7.291 1 .007
Level of education(2) 3.456 1 .063
Level of education(3) 1.040 1 .308
Level of education(4) .460 1 .498
Years with current employer 43.610 1 .000
Years at current address 18.873 1 .000
Household income in thousands 7.912 1 .005
Credit card debt in thousands .566 1 .452
Other debt in thousands 6.828 1 .009
Overall Statistics 79.885 10 .000
Step 2 Variables Age in years .064 1 .801
Level of education 3.185 4 .527
Level of education(1) 2.653 1 .103
Level of education(2) 1.276 1 .259
Level of education(3) .890 1 .346
Level of education(4) .082 1 .774
Years at current address 7.366 1 .007
Household income in thousands 4.174 1 .041
Credit card debt in thousands 40.151 1 .000
Other debt in thousands 1.864 1 .172
Overall Statistics 60.354 9 .000
Step 3 Variables Age in years 1.851 1 .174
Level of education 1.656 4 .799
Level of education(1) .280 1 .597
Level of education(2) .896 1 .344
Level of education(3) .016 1 .900
Level of education(4) .913 1 .339
Years at current address 15.866 1 .000
Household income in thousands 2.784 1 .095
Other debt in thousands .676 1 .411
Overall Statistics 21.807 8 .005
Step 4 Variables Age in years 1.671 1 .196
Level of education 2.095 4 .718
Level of education(1) .713 1 .398
Level of education(2) .939 1 .333
Level of education(3) .099 1 .753
Level of education(4) .643 1 .423
Household income in thousands .856 1 .355
Other debt in thousands .156 1 .693
Overall Statistics 6.178 7 .519
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities (more)Plot - September 23, 2019(less)












             Step number: 1



             Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities



      32 +          Y Y                                                                                       +

         I          Y Y Y                                                                                     I

         I          Y NYY                                                                                     I

F        I          N NYY                                                                                     I

R     24 +          N NNNY                                                                                    +

E        I         NN NNNY    Y                                                                               I

Q        I         NN NNNNYY  Y                                                                               I

U        I         NN NNNNNN  Y                                                                               I

E     16 +         NNNNNNNNN  N                                                                               +

N        I         NNNNNNNNNY N Y                                                                             I

C        I        YNNNNNNNNNY N N Y               Y                                                           I

Y        I        NNNNNNNNNNNYNYNNYY  YY    Y     Y                                                           I

       8 +        NNNNNNNNNNNNNYNNYYN NNY YYN     N       Y                                                   +

         I        NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYNNNNNNNYY Y N   Y   Y        Y                                          I

         I        NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYYY NY NNYY Y   Y    Y         Y                                I

         I        NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYNNNNNY N N  NNN YYNY  Y  Y YNN   NY    Y    Y       I

Predicted ---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------

  Prob:   0       .1        .2        .3        .4        .5        .6        .7        .8        .9         1

  Group:  NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY



          Predicted Probability is of Membership for Yes

          The Cut Value is .50

          Symbols: N - No

                   Y - Yes

          Each Symbol Represents 2 Cases.

Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities (more)Plot - September 23, 2019(less)












             Step number: 2



             Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities



      32 +                                                                                                    +

         I                                                                                                    I

         I                                                                                                    I

F        I         Y                                                                                          I

R     24 +         N                                                                                          +

E        I         N                                                                                          I

Q        I   N    NN                                                                                          I

U        I  NN  Y NN Y                                                                                        I

E     16 +  NN  N NN Y                                                                                        +

N        I  NN YN NNYNN Y                                                                                     I

C        I NNNNNN NNNNN N   Y  YY                                                                             I

Y        I NNNNNN NNNNNNN  YN YNNN     Y     Y                                                                I

       8 + NNNNNNYNNNNNNNYYYNNNNNN  YYYNN N  Y Y                                                              +

         I NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYNNNNNNYNYNYNN NY N Y  Y  YY  Y     Y             Y                                I

         INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYNNYNNN  NN NYYYY   YYNNYY Y        N Y   Y  Y                       I

         INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNNNNNNNNYNNNNNYYYY YN  NNNN YNNN NY NY  NY YYY YY  Y     I

Predicted ---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------

  Prob:   0       .1        .2        .3        .4        .5        .6        .7        .8        .9         1

  Group:  NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY



          Predicted Probability is of Membership for Yes

          The Cut Value is .50

          Symbols: N - No

                   Y - Yes

          Each Symbol Represents 2 Cases.

Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities (more)Plot - September 23, 2019(less)












             Step number: 3



             Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities



      32 +N                                                                                                   +

         IN                                                                                                   I

         IN                                                                                                   I

F        INN                                                                                                  I

R     24 +NN                                                                                                  +

E        INN  Y                                                                                               I

Q        INN  N                                                                                               I

U        INN  N                                                                                               I

E     16 +NNNNN NY                                                                                            +

N        INNNNN NNNY          Y                                                                               I

C        INNNNN NNNYN      N  N        Y           Y                                                          I

Y        INNNNNNNNNNNNY N  NYYN        Y           Y                                                          I

       8 +NNNNNNNNNNNNN NY NNNN NN   Y N Y Y    Y  N                                                          +

         INNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNNNYNN  YYYN NYN    N  NY     Y NY             Y                                  I

         INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYYNNNN NNNYYN NYYNNY Y  N NN YYY   Y Y   Y            YY           Y        I

         INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYNNNNNNNNNYNYNNNNNN NNNNNNNNNNNNYNNYNNYNNY     YY YNNYN YYYY N Y  N Y Y  YYI

Predicted ---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------

  Prob:   0       .1        .2        .3        .4        .5        .6        .7        .8        .9         1

  Group:  NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY



          Predicted Probability is of Membership for Yes

          The Cut Value is .50

          Symbols: N - No

                   Y - Yes

          Each Symbol Represents 2 Cases.

Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio)
Block 1: Method = Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) - Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities (more)Plot - September 23, 2019(less)












             Step number: 4



             Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities



      80 +                                                                                                    +

         I                                                                                                    I

         I                                                                                                    I

F        I                                                                                                    I

R     60 +                                                                                                    +

E        I                                                                                                    I

Q        I                                                                                                    I

U        IN                                                                                                   I

E     40 +N                                                                                                   +

N        IN                                                                                                   I

C        INN                                                                                                  I

Y        INN                                                                                                  I

      20 +NNN                                                                                                 +

         INNNNN NY  N  N                                                                                      I

         INNNNNNNNNYN NN N    YN   N  Y   Y                                                                   I

         INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYNNYYN  N NN NNNY  NYYN NY  Y Y Y   Y    Y Y Y              Y            I

Predicted ---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+----------

  Prob:   0       .1        .2        .3        .4        .5        .6        .7        .8        .9         1

  Group:  NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY



          Predicted Probability is of Membership for Yes

          The Cut Value is .50

          Symbols: N - No

                   Y - Yes

          Each Symbol Represents 5 Cases.

Log
Log - Log - September 23, 2019

IF  (MISSING(default) = 0) chgdev=sre_1**2.
EXECUTE.
* Chart Builder.
GGRAPH
  /GRAPHDATASET NAME="graphdataset" VARIABLES=PRE_1 chgdev MISSING=LISTWISE REPORTMISSING=NO
  /GRAPHSPEC SOURCE=INLINE
  /FITLINE TOTAL=NO.
BEGIN GPL
  SOURCE: s=userSource(id("graphdataset"))
  DATA: PRE_1=col(source(s), name("PRE_1"))
  DATA: chgdev=col(source(s), name("chgdev"))
  GUIDE: axis(dim(1), label("Predicted probability"))
  GUIDE: axis(dim(2), label("chgdev"))
  GUIDE: text.title(label("Simple Scatter of chgdev by Predicted probability"))
  ELEMENT: point(position(PRE_1*chgdev))
END GPL.

GGraph
GGraph - Graph - September 23, 2019
Graph Predicted probability: .12411 chgdev: .27 Predicted probability: .42205 chgdev: 1.11 Predicted probability: .69180 chgdev: .79 Predicted probability: .29618 chgdev: .71 Predicted probability: .04581 chgdev: .09 Predicted probability: .28603 chgdev: 2.53 Predicted probability: .46809 chgdev: 1.27 Predicted probability: .00923 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .40034 chgdev: 1.03 Predicted probability: .31543 chgdev: 2.33 Predicted probability: .00753 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .06801 chgdev: .14 Predicted probability: .07582 chgdev: 5.18 Predicted probability: .17458 chgdev: .39 Predicted probability: .18433 chgdev: .41 Predicted probability: .63882 chgdev: .91 Predicted probability: .12829 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .01534 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .00543 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .42078 chgdev: 1.14 Predicted probability: .04148 chgdev: .09 Predicted probability: .08672 chgdev: .18 Predicted probability: .16412 chgdev: 3.67 Predicted probability: .32188 chgdev: .78 Predicted probability: .14614 chgdev: .32 Predicted probability: .02592 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .01207 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .40046 chgdev: 1.11 Predicted probability: .42951 chgdev: 1.71 Predicted probability: .02314 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .33888 chgdev: .83 Predicted probability: .53971 chgdev: 1.57 Predicted probability: .00965 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .14981 chgdev: .33 Predicted probability: .03974 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .00190 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .12339 chgdev: .26 Predicted probability: .00222 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .16153 chgdev: .35 Predicted probability: .01821 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .02209 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .76430 chgdev: .64 Predicted probability: .04943 chgdev: .10 Predicted probability: .16577 chgdev: .36 Predicted probability: .54767 chgdev: 1.60 Predicted probability: .59931 chgdev: 1.86 Predicted probability: .13233 chgdev: .29 Predicted probability: .20602 chgdev: .46 Predicted probability: .00782 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .00176 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .10552 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .41787 chgdev: 1.09 Predicted probability: .51276 chgdev: 1.48 Predicted probability: .49313 chgdev: 1.42 Predicted probability: .11188 chgdev: 4.40 Predicted probability: .38809 chgdev: 1.91 Predicted probability: .00287 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .06315 chgdev: .13 Predicted probability: .01358 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .05163 chgdev: .11 Predicted probability: .35994 chgdev: 2.08 Predicted probability: .11102 chgdev: .24 Predicted probability: .19177 chgdev: .43 Predicted probability: .87097 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .00278 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .82831 chgdev: .38 Predicted probability: .03354 chgdev: .07 Predicted probability: .06784 chgdev: .14 Predicted probability: .20099 chgdev: .46 Predicted probability: .33763 chgdev: .83 Predicted probability: .68687 chgdev: .76 Predicted probability: .43752 chgdev: 1.67 Predicted probability: .01877 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .75600 chgdev: .57 Predicted probability: .12589 chgdev: .27 Predicted probability: .55522 chgdev: 1.19 Predicted probability: .68433 chgdev: .78 Predicted probability: .24633 chgdev: 2.82 Predicted probability: .08906 chgdev: .19 Predicted probability: .09501 chgdev: .20 Predicted probability: .09798 chgdev: .21 Predicted probability: .09618 chgdev: .20 Predicted probability: .96731 chgdev: .07 Predicted probability: .77461 chgdev: .54 Predicted probability: .07796 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .25442 chgdev: .59 Predicted probability: .06988 chgdev: .15 Predicted probability: .35754 chgdev: .89 Predicted probability: .00337 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .13786 chgdev: 3.99 Predicted probability: .57488 chgdev: 1.73 Predicted probability: .91243 chgdev: .19 Predicted probability: .28164 chgdev: 2.55 Predicted probability: .00590 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .32525 chgdev: .80 Predicted probability: .70333 chgdev: .71 Predicted probability: .31158 chgdev: 2.37 Predicted probability: .02247 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .00139 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .07181 chgdev: .15 Predicted probability: .03968 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .13225 chgdev: .29 Predicted probability: .27348 chgdev: 2.62 Predicted probability: .41965 chgdev: 1.18 Predicted probability: .10932 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .00276 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .69335 chgdev: 2.43 Predicted probability: .58940 chgdev: 1.09 Predicted probability: .28670 chgdev: 2.56 Predicted probability: .16592 chgdev: .37 Predicted probability: .00817 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .01946 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .57797 chgdev: 1.11 Predicted probability: .00442 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .04116 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .24896 chgdev: .58 Predicted probability: .28053 chgdev: .67 Predicted probability: .05438 chgdev: .11 Predicted probability: .30636 chgdev: 2.40 Predicted probability: .74288 chgdev: .60 Predicted probability: .24743 chgdev: 2.80 Predicted probability: .00172 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .25454 chgdev: .59 Predicted probability: .04044 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .05924 chgdev: .12 Predicted probability: .31099 chgdev: .75 Predicted probability: .14824 chgdev: .32 Predicted probability: .18844 chgdev: .42 Predicted probability: .29708 chgdev: .71 Predicted probability: .07149 chgdev: .15 Predicted probability: .01729 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .12145 chgdev: .26 Predicted probability: .02760 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .11879 chgdev: .26 Predicted probability: .13556 chgdev: .29 Predicted probability: .05351 chgdev: .11 Predicted probability: .00516 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .54770 chgdev: 1.60 Predicted probability: .06367 chgdev: .13 Predicted probability: .00097 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .68991 chgdev: 2.37 Predicted probability: .68022 chgdev: .78 Predicted probability: .18494 chgdev: .42 Predicted probability: .15792 chgdev: .35 Predicted probability: .49841 chgdev: 1.41 Predicted probability: .88412 chgdev: .25 Predicted probability: .70704 chgdev: .70 Predicted probability: .10077 chgdev: .21 Predicted probability: .11087 chgdev: .24 Predicted probability: .23782 chgdev: 2.89 Predicted probability: .44465 chgdev: 1.67 Predicted probability: .01022 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .00122 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .55748 chgdev: 1.20 Predicted probability: .72106 chgdev: .67 Predicted probability: .22974 chgdev: 2.96 Predicted probability: .15143 chgdev: .33 Predicted probability: .13036 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .24727 chgdev: .57 Predicted probability: .46619 chgdev: 1.54 Predicted probability: .01974 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .03678 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .00040 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .46446 chgdev: 1.55 Predicted probability: .02107 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .40771 chgdev: 1.06 Predicted probability: .05116 chgdev: .11 Predicted probability: .48897 chgdev: 1.45 Predicted probability: .32052 chgdev: 2.31 Predicted probability: .35425 chgdev: 2.10 Predicted probability: .38678 chgdev: .99 Predicted probability: .98027 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .66360 chgdev: 2.24 Predicted probability: .63355 chgdev: 2.11 Predicted probability: .10576 chgdev: .22 Predicted probability: .06050 chgdev: .13 Predicted probability: .60035 chgdev: 1.03 Predicted probability: .10675 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .06116 chgdev: .13 Predicted probability: .26340 chgdev: .64 Predicted probability: .38500 chgdev: .99 Predicted probability: .03583 chgdev: .07 Predicted probability: .08586 chgdev: .18 Predicted probability: .15836 chgdev: .35 Predicted probability: .00089 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .72045 chgdev: .66 Predicted probability: .56840 chgdev: 1.15 Predicted probability: .15606 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .22969 chgdev: .53 Predicted probability: .88847 chgdev: .24 Predicted probability: .04214 chgdev: .09 Predicted probability: .07792 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .13961 chgdev: .31 Predicted probability: .13024 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .02157 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .29046 chgdev: .70 Predicted probability: .47091 chgdev: 1.29 Predicted probability: .49005 chgdev: 1.38 Predicted probability: .42393 chgdev: 1.17 Predicted probability: .31215 chgdev: 2.35 Predicted probability: .00637 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .37688 chgdev: .96 Predicted probability: .07958 chgdev: .17 Predicted probability: .70067 chgdev: .72 Predicted probability: .06480 chgdev: .13 Predicted probability: .00675 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .42601 chgdev: 1.74 Predicted probability: .13665 chgdev: .31 Predicted probability: .80964 chgdev: .43 Predicted probability: .01753 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .00140 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .04871 chgdev: .10 Predicted probability: .01239 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .31735 chgdev: .77 Predicted probability: .09290 chgdev: .20 Predicted probability: .01798 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .02749 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .95929 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .32211 chgdev: .78 Predicted probability: .08556 chgdev: .18 Predicted probability: .47417 chgdev: 1.50 Predicted probability: .55063 chgdev: 1.62 Predicted probability: .22335 chgdev: .51 Predicted probability: .51433 chgdev: 1.35 Predicted probability: .73011 chgdev: .68 Predicted probability: .28453 chgdev: 2.53 Predicted probability: .00318 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .02750 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .06093 chgdev: .13 Predicted probability: .02200 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .10842 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .51176 chgdev: 1.46 Predicted probability: .20591 chgdev: 3.19 Predicted probability: .23492 chgdev: .54 Predicted probability: .80073 chgdev: .45 Predicted probability: .57378 chgdev: 1.17 Predicted probability: .07452 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .03825 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .02524 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .46655 chgdev: 1.28 Predicted probability: .06680 chgdev: .14 Predicted probability: .99928 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .05149 chgdev: .11 Predicted probability: .16125 chgdev: .35 Predicted probability: .00326 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .13201 chgdev: .29 Predicted probability: .13153 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .10824 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .41809 chgdev: 1.79 Predicted probability: .07512 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .01826 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .01437 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .68549 chgdev: 2.36 Predicted probability: .38966 chgdev: 1.00 Predicted probability: .63746 chgdev: .91 Predicted probability: .59265 chgdev: 1.07 Predicted probability: .37796 chgdev: 2.03 Predicted probability: .12792 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .66820 chgdev: 2.24 Predicted probability: .32136 chgdev: .78 Predicted probability: .30568 chgdev: .74 Predicted probability: .15241 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .98130 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .00453 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .16418 chgdev: .36 Predicted probability: .15352 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .87860 chgdev: .26 Predicted probability: .00387 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .25777 chgdev: .60 Predicted probability: .03897 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .21171 chgdev: .48 Predicted probability: .26918 chgdev: 2.65 Predicted probability: .21689 chgdev: 3.08 Predicted probability: .30074 chgdev: .73 Predicted probability: .14268 chgdev: .31 Predicted probability: .28969 chgdev: .69 Predicted probability: .23474 chgdev: .54 Predicted probability: .94542 chgdev: .12 Predicted probability: .31487 chgdev: 2.33 Predicted probability: .00216 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .32372 chgdev: 2.27 Predicted probability: .08741 chgdev: .18 Predicted probability: .21634 chgdev: 3.09 Predicted probability: .10093 chgdev: .21 Predicted probability: .49481 chgdev: 1.38 Predicted probability: .20192 chgdev: .46 Predicted probability: .51279 chgdev: 1.45 Predicted probability: .19191 chgdev: .43 Predicted probability: .57138 chgdev: 1.13 Predicted probability: .10695 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .12766 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .13424 chgdev: .29 Predicted probability: .01794 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .04461 chgdev: .09 Predicted probability: .00162 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .04068 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .99214 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .00521 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .20628 chgdev: 3.17 Predicted probability: .72382 chgdev: 2.61 Predicted probability: .37620 chgdev: .95 Predicted probability: .03325 chgdev: .07 Predicted probability: .17899 chgdev: .40 Predicted probability: .00126 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .05500 chgdev: .11 Predicted probability: .22652 chgdev: .52 Predicted probability: .05224 chgdev: .11 Predicted probability: .00393 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .04962 chgdev: .10 Predicted probability: .03510 chgdev: .07 Predicted probability: .23450 chgdev: .54 Predicted probability: .40446 chgdev: 1.04 Predicted probability: .48071 chgdev: 1.52 Predicted probability: .03558 chgdev: 6.69 Predicted probability: .10728 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .02365 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .57239 chgdev: 1.12 Predicted probability: .52844 chgdev: 1.29 Predicted probability: .02881 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .24322 chgdev: .56 Predicted probability: .17604 chgdev: .39 Predicted probability: .42894 chgdev: 1.13 Predicted probability: .48375 chgdev: 1.34 Predicted probability: .18358 chgdev: .41 Predicted probability: .10841 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .19368 chgdev: .43 Predicted probability: .32933 chgdev: .81 Predicted probability: .00235 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .46219 chgdev: 1.25 Predicted probability: .04364 chgdev: .09 Predicted probability: .28567 chgdev: 2.56 Predicted probability: .00861 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .35269 chgdev: .89 Predicted probability: .03817 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .40484 chgdev: 1.04 Predicted probability: .00400 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .32062 chgdev: .85 Predicted probability: .06581 chgdev: .14 Predicted probability: .10607 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .20513 chgdev: 3.19 Predicted probability: .26088 chgdev: .61 Predicted probability: .15924 chgdev: .35 Predicted probability: .01903 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .19587 chgdev: 3.28 Predicted probability: .16098 chgdev: .35 Predicted probability: .25832 chgdev: .60 Predicted probability: .41433 chgdev: 1.08 Predicted probability: .15403 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .21964 chgdev: .50 Predicted probability: .72449 chgdev: .65 Predicted probability: .01449 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .15119 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .07673 chgdev: 5.15 Predicted probability: .04683 chgdev: .10 Predicted probability: .15575 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .22239 chgdev: .51 Predicted probability: .43203 chgdev: 1.69 Predicted probability: .03750 chgdev: .08 Predicted probability: .13051 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .03088 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .07865 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .15690 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .05416 chgdev: 5.85 Predicted probability: .17984 chgdev: .40 Predicted probability: .01408 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .26114 chgdev: 2.71 Predicted probability: .14471 chgdev: 3.90 Predicted probability: .41908 chgdev: 1.09 Predicted probability: .15488 chgdev: .34 Predicted probability: .43032 chgdev: 1.13 Predicted probability: .04027 chgdev: 6.47 Predicted probability: .03055 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .79641 chgdev: 3.24 Predicted probability: .00348 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .02279 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .63992 chgdev: .91 Predicted probability: .14296 chgdev: .31 Predicted probability: .59752 chgdev: 1.85 Predicted probability: .28658 chgdev: .68 Predicted probability: .07923 chgdev: .17 Predicted probability: .10851 chgdev: .23 Predicted probability: .01763 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .58278 chgdev: 1.09 Predicted probability: .57796 chgdev: 1.13 Predicted probability: .06774 chgdev: .14 Predicted probability: .37066 chgdev: 2.00 Predicted probability: .17501 chgdev: .39 Predicted probability: .47564 chgdev: 1.31 Predicted probability: .05950 chgdev: .12 Predicted probability: .20116 chgdev: 3.23 Predicted probability: .26606 chgdev: .63 Predicted probability: .53489 chgdev: 1.54 Predicted probability: .09738 chgdev: .21 Predicted probability: .01587 chgdev: 8.32 Predicted probability: .03490 chgdev: .07 Predicted probability: .21018 chgdev: .47 Predicted probability: .49296 chgdev: 1.37 Predicted probability: .49930 chgdev: 1.40 Predicted probability: .03582 chgdev: .07 Predicted probability: .00438 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .40965 chgdev: 1.80 Predicted probability: .06264 chgdev: .13 Predicted probability: .04813 chgdev: .10 Predicted probability: .55209 chgdev: 1.63 Predicted probability: .09297 chgdev: .20 Predicted probability: .14875 chgdev: .32 Predicted probability: .01596 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .00571 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .22947 chgdev: .52 Predicted probability: .25355 chgdev: .59 Predicted probability: .01560 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .25714 chgdev: .60 Predicted probability: .27588 chgdev: 2.59 Predicted probability: .07059 chgdev: .15 Predicted probability: .08670 chgdev: .18 Predicted probability: .52841 chgdev: 1.28 Predicted probability: .36025 chgdev: 2.06 Predicted probability: .02259 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .47823 chgdev: 1.49 Predicted probability: .12872 chgdev: .28 Predicted probability: .19460 chgdev: .43 Predicted probability: .00645 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .21654 chgdev: .49 Predicted probability: .28573 chgdev: .68 Predicted probability: .04230 chgdev: .09 Predicted probability: .38526 chgdev: .98 Predicted probability: .08232 chgdev: 5.03 Predicted probability: .02895 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .08966 chgdev: .19 Predicted probability: .09336 chgdev: .20 Predicted probability: .00235 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .34140 chgdev: 2.16 Predicted probability: .05832 chgdev: .12 Predicted probability: .87740 chgdev: .27 Predicted probability: .36695 chgdev: 2.03 Predicted probability: .41446 chgdev: 1.77 Predicted probability: .92570 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .01267 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .32236 chgdev: .81 Predicted probability: .13621 chgdev: .30 Predicted probability: .21762 chgdev: .49 Predicted probability: .24636 chgdev: .57 Predicted probability: .17967 chgdev: .40 Predicted probability: .59459 chgdev: 1.05 Predicted probability: .01044 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .01929 chgdev: .04 Predicted probability: .25376 chgdev: .59 Predicted probability: .11099 chgdev: .24 Predicted probability: .01059 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .00543 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .60889 chgdev: 1.92 Predicted probability: .65619 chgdev: .86 Predicted probability: .20451 chgdev: 3.19 Predicted probability: .31130 chgdev: 2.35 Predicted probability: .21660 chgdev: .49 Predicted probability: .35648 chgdev: .89 Predicted probability: .45550 chgdev: 1.23 Predicted probability: .07648 chgdev: 5.18 Predicted probability: .02890 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .07689 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .01094 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .08987 chgdev: .19 Predicted probability: .37551 chgdev: .95 Predicted probability: .39412 chgdev: 1.01 Predicted probability: .30367 chgdev: 2.40 Predicted probability: .01028 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .62274 chgdev: .96 Predicted probability: .27875 chgdev: .66 Predicted probability: .01031 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .52867 chgdev: 1.29 Predicted probability: .02977 chgdev: .06 Predicted probability: .13791 chgdev: .30 Predicted probability: .00227 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .61470 chgdev: .98 Predicted probability: .19404 chgdev: .44 Predicted probability: .94260 chgdev: 5.78 Predicted probability: .08224 chgdev: .17 Predicted probability: .21615 chgdev: .49 Predicted probability: .29801 chgdev: .71 Predicted probability: .42455 chgdev: 1.12 Predicted probability: .07816 chgdev: .16 Predicted probability: .48853 chgdev: 1.36 Predicted probability: .24970 chgdev: .58 Predicted probability: .00104 chgdev: .00 Predicted probability: .85414 chgdev: 3.90 Predicted probability: .00462 chgdev: .01 Predicted probability: .10540 chgdev: .22 Predicted probability: .09535 chgdev: 4.72 Predicted probability: .01117 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .00913 chgdev: .02 Predicted probability: .25607 chgdev: .60 Predicted probability: .38645 chgdev: .99 Predicted probability: .70392 chgdev: .72 Predicted probability: .01465 chgdev: .03 Predicted probability: .13754 chgdev: .31 Predicted probability: .21153 chgdev: .48 Predicted probability: .77181 chgdev: .52 Predicted probability: .02316 chgdev: .05 Predicted probability: .17584 chgdev: .39 .00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 .00000 .20000 .40000 .60000 .80000 1.00000

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